Dear subscribers,
First National Bank has compiled a comprehensive review of how the economy has generally performed last year and what lies ahead - to read more, click here
Here is BetterBond's summary of the FNB Report:
The FNB House Price Index growth averaged 0.8% y/y in December, marginally higher than the 0.7% in November (revised from 0.5%), and a low of 0.5% in October. This suggests that annual house price growth averaged 1.5% in 2023, in line with their expectations.
The marginal uptick in the last three months of 2023 signals that price growth may have reached its trough. That said, FNB expect the weak house price growth trajectory to continue for a little while, amid heightened uncertainty.
Nevertheless, their base case view suggests that the gradual decline in inflation and borrowing costs from 2H24, combined with some employment gains, should modestly stimulate demand in the interest-rate sensitive segments over the medium term, which would support a moderate uptrend in house prices.
In the report, FNB also provide detail of the 4Q23 Estate Agents Survey.
Kind regards
Francesca Beattie